本周(1.25-2.1)，国内方管价格波动不大，监测数据显示，截至2月1日，国内十大重点城市4寸方管均价为4182元(吨 价，下同)，比上周同期方管价格持平。河北地区主导管厂及各地区贸易商放假安排基本在1.20-29日，价格调整意愿不强；但消息面和期货却不平静。 钢坯方面，上周五经过短短的一出锁价不久就解锁的闹剧后，价格定在3430元，据统计1日唐山主要仓库钢坯库存约33.3万吨，较上期(25日)增13.3 万吨，增幅66.5%，较去年同期(2月13日腊月廿八)少50万吨左右。另这次溃坝事件对期货市场有一定带动，但钢坯现货市场的影响基本已经忽略不计， 其利润相对并不高，故产量供给方面并不如去年，再加之价格明显偏高。节后价格或先迎来一波小幅拉涨，而后或随着供需错配有下行风险。
This week (1.25-2.1), the price of domestic square tubes fluctuates little. Monitoring data show that as of February 1, the average price of 4-inch square tubes in ten major cities in China is 4182 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is equal to the same price of square tubes in the same period last week. The holiday arrangements for leading management plants and traders in Hebei region are basically 1.20-29 days, and the price adjustment will not be strong, but the news and futures are not calm. As for billets, the price was set at 3,430 yuan after a short lock price was unlocked shortly last Friday. According to statistics, the stock of billets in Tangshan's main warehouse on the 1st day was about 333,000 tons, an increase of 66.5% over the previous period (25 days). It was about 500,000 tons less than the same period last year (28 December, 13 February). In addition, the dam-break event has a certain impact on the futures market, but the impact of the spot market of billets has been neglected. Its profit is relatively low, so the supply of production is not as high as last year, and the price is obviously high. After the festival, the price may rise slightly, and then the downside risk will be mismatched with the supply and demand. 带钢方面，截至今日唐山热轧带钢(2.5*355mm)唐山瑞丰3650，较上周同期涨10元。基本维持周初涨后持稳的态势，岁末年终商家陆续退市放假，市场 成交寥寥，多数执行前期锁价政策，仅个别有出货， 28日145mm系列窄带厂家放假休市，后半周出货不计，周内单日平均出货5700吨，较上周降500吨。无锡地区产能利用率较上周明显降低，轧材企业全 部停产放假，仅剩3家全流程钢厂以协议为主，当地贸易商库存较上周增幅达60%以上，预计节后库存仍将大幅增加，价格或将小幅上调。
As for strip steel, Tangshan hot-rolled strip (2.5*355mm) Tangshan Ruifeng 3650, up 10 yuan from the same period last week. Maintaining the steady trend after the early week rise, the end of the year and the end of the year, businessmen have withdrawn from the market for holidays, market turnover is scarce, most of them implement the policy of early lock price, only a few shipments, on the 28th 145mm series of narrowband manufacturers leave the market, the latter half of the week does not count shipments, the average daily shipment within the week is 5700 tons, 500 tons lower than last week. The utilization ratio of production capacity in Wuxi area is significantly lower than last week. All rolling mills are shut down for holidays. Only three full-process steel mills are dominated by agreements. Inventories of local traders have increased by more than 60% compared with last week. Inventories are expected to increase substantially after the festival, and prices may rise slightly.
Welded Pipe Market
本周，宏观消息及期货市场的刺激使原料铁矿石整年走势预测现重塑可能；兰格钢铁网笔者孙明认为实际的市场影响效力还需要一到两个月的时间来考量，并将继续关 注此事件的发展对我国巴西矿种的具体使用和需求的影响分析。而现货市场由于25日前后筹备生产停工，本周销售值班人员多安排协议走量，部分管厂冬储资源前 移至北方市场及港口；节后开工暂定2.11-20日，原料及规格调整操作节奏安排在2月底前后。市场贸易商同样陆续休市，个别正常运营至腊月二十八九，安 排寥寥订单及催收回款；节后大多农历初八至十一左右正式开工。从兰格网调查的数据来看，本周(02.01)国内方管库存：据不完全统计22个城市库存 26.84万吨，较上周同期增0.55万吨，增幅2.09%。
This week, macro news and futures market stimulus have made it possible to reshape the annual trend forecast of raw iron ore. Sun Ming, author of Langer Iron and Steel Network, believes that the actual market impact will take another month or two to consider, and will continue to pay attention to the impact of the development of this event on the specific use and demand of Brazilian minerals in China. In the spot market, due to the planned production shutdown around 25 days ago, the sales staff arranged more agreement volume this week, and some of the winter storage resources of the management plant moved forward to the northern market and port; after the festival, construction was tentatively scheduled for 2.11-20 days, and the rhythm of raw materials and specifications adjustment operation was scheduled around the end of February. Markets and traders are also closing down one after another. Individuals operate normally until December 289, arranging for a small number of orders and reminders; most of them start work around the eighth to eleventh day of the lunar calendar after the festival. According to the data from the Lange survey, this week (02.01) domestic domestic managed inventory: according to incomplete statistics, 22 cities have 268,400 tons of inventory, an increase of 0.55 million tons, an increase of 2.09% over the same period last week.
Monitoring data show that as of February 1, Tangshan Youfa produced 4 inches (3.75) of new GBS cash at a factory price of 3880 yuan; Tangshan Jinghua produced 4 inches (3.75) of new GBS cash at a factory price of 3900 yuan; Jili (Zhengda) produced 4 inches (3.75) of new GBS cash at a factory price of 3930 yuan.
综合来看，临近春节，整体现货市场操作意愿不强，而期货市场在一定消息面的影响下，出现期现套期保值成交量回升；同时在原料成本利润月比增长，产能利用率回 升，钢坯需求量增长的前提下，价格实现托底，钢管上下游春节期间政策多灵活控制；而节后一二季度的需求韧性，将大概率影响节后供需错配阶段的持续程度，价 格存在涨后探底预期。
Generally speaking, near the Spring Festival, the overall spot market operation will not be strong, while the futures market under the influence of certain inion, the volume of futures hedging increased; at the same time, under the premise of the increase of raw material cost-profit ratio, productivity utilization ratio and billet demand, the price achieved the bottom, and the policy of upstream and downstream steel pipe during the Spring Festival was more flexible to control; Quarterly demand resilience will have a great probability to affect the sustainability of the post-season mismatch between supply and demand, and there is a expectation that prices will bottom out after rising.
国内2月份的方管价格走势将如何呢？ | 华东地区方管冬储热情不高 市场心态偏谨慎